How We Calculate Clash Royale Win Rates

By the RoyaleTracker Team·@RoyaleTrackerGG·Updated June 11, 2026

Every win rate on RoyaleTracker, from the meta deck rankings to the arena pages, comes from the same pipeline. This page explains exactly how it works, including the parts where the data has limits. If you are going to trust a number, you deserve to know where it came from.

The Data Source: Official Battle Logs

We collect battle results through the official Clash Royale API provided by Supercell. Our crawler continuously reads public battle logs: which 8 cards each player used, the trophy range of the match, the game mode, and who won. We do not scrape unofficial sources, estimate from replays, or hand-curate results. Every battle in our dataset is one that the game itself reported.

The Math

A deck's win rate is its wins divided by its total recorded battles, with draws counted in the total. If a deck logged 10,000 battles with 5,500 wins, 4,300 losses and 200 draws, its win rate is 55.0%. Most stats you see on the site use a rolling 7-day window, so the numbers describe the current meta rather than mixing in results from three balance patches ago. The data refreshes daily.

A real entry from the meta deck rankings: 53.5% win rate from 4,057 battles, with the win/loss split, average elixir and cycle speed shown alongside it.

Minimum Battle Thresholds

Small samples lie. A deck that won 4 of its 5 recorded battles shows an 80% win rate and means nothing. To keep noise out of the rankings, decks need a minimum number of recorded battles before they appear, typically 100 or more in the relevant trophy range. In ranges where data is thinner, like the lowest arenas where fewer battles are logged, we relax the threshold rather than show nothing, and we apply statistical smoothing so a lucky streak in a small sample cannot outrank a consistently strong deck with thousands of battles.

Why Arena Pages Differ From the Global List

The meta is not the same at 4,000 trophies and at 9,000 trophies. Cards that dominate mid-ladder get answered easily at the top, and decks that need precise play underperform where average skill is lower. That is why our arena pages compute win rates only from battles inside each arena's trophy range, instead of showing every arena the same global list.

The Honest Limitations

No battle dataset is free of bias, and ours is no exception. Two things worth knowing:

• Skill bias. Strong players gravitate toward strong decks. Part of a top deck's win rate is the deck, and part is the players piloting it. Thresholds and large samples reduce this effect but cannot remove it entirely.
• Coverage. We see the battles our crawler reaches, which is millions per week but not literally every game played. Very new or very rare decks may take a day or two to accumulate enough battles to be ranked.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does the same deck show a different win rate on another site?

Different time windows, game modes, trophy ranges and battle thresholds produce different numbers, and all of them can be correct for what they measure. A site averaging 30 days of all modes will disagree with our 7-day ladder window, especially right after a balance change.

Why did a deck's win rate change overnight?

The data refreshes daily on a rolling window, so yesterday's oldest battles drop out as new ones come in. After balance changes the movement is fastest, which is exactly when fresh data matters most.

Is a 55% deck better than a 53% deck for me?

Usually, but not always. Win rate measures the average pilot. Comfort and practice with an archetype are worth several points. Use the rankings to shortlist, then test with the Deck Rater and play a dozen friendly battles before committing your ladder trophies.